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Proxy evidencia para una respuesta similar a El Niño a la fuerza volcánica forzando

J Brad Adams¹, Michael E Mann, Caspar M Ammann

¹Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Clark Hall, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA. jba7g@virginia.edu

|November 25, 2003

Resumen

Las erupciones volcánicas explosivas aumentan significativamente la probabilidad de eventos climáticos de El Niño. Este estudio proporciona una fuerte evidencia que vincula la actividad volcánica con el fenómeno de El Niño / Oscilación del Sur (ENSO).

Área de la Ciencia:

Paleoclimatología Paleoclimatología
Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
Volcanología Volcanología.

Sus antecedentes:

Investigaciones anteriores sugieren un vínculo entre las erupciones volcánicas y los eventos de El Niño, pero esta conexión sigue siendo objeto de debate.
La comprensión de los forzamientos climáticos es crucial para predecir la variabilidad climática futura.

Objetivo del estudio:

Investigar la relación entre la actividad volcánica explosiva y los eventos de El Niño y la Oscilación Sur (ENSO).
Proporcionar apoyo empírico para la influencia del vulcanismo en el sistema de atmósfera del océano Pacífico tropical.

Principales métodos:

Se utilizaron dos reconstrucciones paleoclimáticas distintas de la actividad de El Niño.
Empleó dos cronologías independientes, basadas en proxies, de la actividad volcánica explosiva desde 1649 hasta la actualidad.
Analizaron respuestas parecidas a El Niño de varios años al forzamiento volcánico.

Principales resultados:

Demostró una respuesta significativa, parecida a El Niño, de varios años a la fuerza volcánica tropical explosiva durante siglos.
Descubrió que las erupciones volcánicas aproximadamente duplican la probabilidad de un evento de El Niño en el invierno siguiente.
Estableció un vínculo empírico robusto entre el vulcanismo explosivo pasado y el comportamiento de ENSO.

Conclusiones:

El vulcanismo explosivo es un factor importante de los eventos ENSO.
Los hallazgos mejoran nuestra comprensión de cómo el forzamiento radiativo externo impacta en el Pacífico tropical.
Esta investigación tiene implicaciones para predecir las respuestas climáticas a los forzamientos naturales y antropogénicos.

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