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Extinction Training During the Reconsolidation Window Prevents Recovery of Fear
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Riesgo de extinción por el cambio climático.

Chris D Thomas1, Alison Cameron, Rhys E Green

  • 1Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. c.d.thomas@leeds.ac.uk

Nature
|January 9, 2004
PubMed
Resumen
Este resumen es generado por máquina.

El cambio climático amenaza la supervivencia de las especies, con un 15-37% proyectado para comprometerse con la extinción para 2050 bajo el calentamiento de rango medio. Las reducciones urgentes de emisiones y el secuestro de carbono son vitales para mitigar la pérdida de biodiversidad.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ecología Ecología Ecología.
  • Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
  • Biología de la Conservación Biología de la Conservación.

Sus antecedentes:

  • El cambio climático ha alterado de manera demostrable la distribución y la abundancia de especies en los últimos 30 años.
  • Una extinción documentada de especies se ha relacionado con los impactos del cambio climático.
  • La evaluación de los riesgos futuros de extinción es crucial para las estrategias de conservación proactivas.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Proyectar los riesgos de extinción para varias especies bajo futuros escenarios de cambio climático.
  • Cuantificar el porcentaje de especies comprometidas con la extinción en diversas regiones terrestres.
  • Para evaluar la relación entre el tamaño de la gama geográfica y la probabilidad de extinción.

Principales métodos:

  • Utilizó modelos de distribución de especies para proyectar cambios de rango bajo diferentes escenarios climáticos.
  • Empleó tres enfoques analíticos distintos para estimar las probabilidades de extinción.
  • Incorporó dos escenarios de dispersión para tener en cuenta las capacidades de movimiento de las especies.

Principales resultados:

  • Los escenarios de calentamiento climático de rango medio para 2050 predicen el 15-37% de las especies muestreadas comprometidas con la extinción.
  • Los escenarios de calentamiento mínimo proyectan aproximadamente el 18% de las especies comprometidas con la extinción.
  • Los escenarios de aumento del calentamiento se correlacionan con proyecciones de extinción más altas, alcanzando aproximadamente el 35% bajo cambio máximo.

Conclusiones:

  • Las tasas de extinción proyectadas subrayan la grave amenaza que el cambio climático representa para la biodiversidad global.
  • Los hallazgos destacan la necesidad crítica de reducciones inmediatas y sustanciales en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.
  • La implementación de estrategias efectivas de secuestro de carbono es esencial para reducir los riesgos futuros de extinción.