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La previsibilidad de El Niño en los últimos 148 años
Dake Chen1, Mark A Cane, Alexey Kaplan
1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964, USA. dchen@ldeo.columbia.edu
Nature
|April 16, 2004
Resumen
La previsibilidad del evento climático de El Niño es más alta de lo que se pensaba anteriormente. Los pronósticos retrospectivos muestran dinámicas internas, no el ruido atmosférico, el control de El Niño, por lo que las condiciones iniciales clave para las predicciones precisas.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
- Ciencias de la atmósfera Ciencias atmosféricas.
Sus antecedentes:
- Se debaten los límites de previsibilidad de El Niño, con algunos estudios que citan el ruido atmosférico y otros el crecimiento del error del modelo inicial.
- Se proporcionan pronósticos rutinarios de eventos climáticos de El Niño, pero su exactitud sigue siendo un tema de discusión científica.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para evaluar la previsibilidad de El Niño utilizando pronósticos retrospectivos.
- Investigar los principales impulsores de la evolución de El Niño y su impacto en la precisión de las predicciones.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó un modelo acoplado océano-atmósfera para pronósticos retrospectivos.
- Analizó las fluctuaciones climáticas interanuales en el Pacífico tropical desde 1857 hasta 2003.
Principales resultados:
- El modelo predijo con éxito todos los principales eventos de El Niño entre 1857 y 2003 con tiempos de espera de hasta dos años.
- La evolución de El Niño está predominantemente gobernada por dinámicas internas autosuficientes en lugar de forzamientos atmosféricos aleatorios.
Conclusiones:
- La previsibilidad de El Niño está significativamente influenciada por las condiciones iniciales, no por el ruido atmosférico impredecible.
- Los eventos de El Niño han sido más predecibles durante el siglo pasado de lo que se entendía anteriormente.
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