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Cuantificación de las incertidumbres de los modelos en un amplio conjunto de simulaciones del cambio climático
James M Murphy1, David M H Sexton, David N Barnett
1Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK. james.murphy@metoffice.com
Nature
|August 13, 2004
Resumen
Este estudio cuantifica las incertidumbres del cambio climático utilizando un gran conjunto de modelos climáticos. Proporciona un rango de probabilidad confiable para el aumento de la temperatura global debido a la duplicación del dióxido de carbono.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre
- Modelado del medio ambiente Modelado del medio ambiente Modelado del medio ambiente
Sus antecedentes:
- Los modelos climáticos globales son esenciales para predecir el cambio climático futuro.
- Las incertidumbres en los parámetros del modelo conducen a una amplia gama de predicciones.
- Evaluar la calidad relativa de los diferentes modelos climáticos es un desafío.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Determinar sistemáticamente el rango de los cambios climáticos consistente con las incertidumbres de los modelos.
- Para estimar una función de densidad de probabilidad para la sensibilidad climática a la duplicación del CO2.
- Proporcionar una gama más confiable de predicciones regionales del cambio climático.
Principales métodos:
- Construcción de un conjunto de 53 miembros de versiones de modelos climáticos por diferentes parámetros.
- Estimación de una función de densidad de probabilidad para la sensibilidad climática.
- Restringir la función de densidad de probabilidad con estimaciones objetivas de confiabilidad y asesoramiento de expertos.
Principales resultados:
- Un rango de probabilidad del 5-95% para la sensibilidad del clima a una duplicación del CO2 atmosférico se estima en 2.4-5.4 grados C.
- El enfoque de conjunto produce una gama más amplia de cambios climáticos regionales que los métodos tradicionales.
- Las estimaciones objetivas de fiabilidad mejoran la evaluación de las incertidumbres de los modelos.
Conclusiones:
- Este enfoque sistemático reduce la incertidumbre en las proyecciones del cambio climático.
- Los hallazgos proporcionan una base más sólida para la planificación de adaptación y mitigación del cambio climático.
- El modelado conjunto con parámetros variados ofrece un método superior para evaluar los impactos del cambio climático.
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