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Investigating the Relationship between Sea Surface Chlorophyll and Major Features of the South China Sea with Satellite Information
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Published on: June 13, 2020

Reconstruyendo el clima pasado a partir de datos ruidosos.

Hans von Storch1, Eduardo Zorita, Julie M Jones

  • 1Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht 21502, Germany. storch@gkss.de

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 2, 2004
PubMed
Resumen
Este resumen es generado por máquina.

Las reconstrucciones de la temperatura del pasado milenio en el hemisferio norte (NH) pueden subestimar la variabilidad centenaria. Las simulaciones de modelos climáticos sugieren que las variaciones reales de temperatura pasadas fueron al menos dos veces más grandes que las reconstruidas previamente.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Paleoclimatología Paleoclimatología
  • Modelado del clima en el modelo climático.
  • Análisis estadístico El análisis estadístico.

Sus antecedentes:

  • Las reconstrucciones empíricas de la temperatura del hemisferio norte (NH) del último milenio muestran pequeñas variaciones y un calentamiento reciente.
  • Los registros multiproxy se utilizan comúnmente para reconstruir la variabilidad climática pasada.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Para probar la habilidad de los métodos de reconstrucción empírica en escalas de tiempo multidecadal y centenario.
  • Para evaluar la precisión de las variaciones pasadas de temperatura de NH derivadas de registros multiproxy.

Principales métodos:

  • Simulación de modelo acoplado atmósfera-océano de los últimos 1000 años utilizado como un sustituto del clima.
  • Registros proxy idealizados generados a partir de datos de temperatura de puntos de red simulados con ruido estadístico agregado.
  • Métodos basados en regresión aplicados para analizar la variabilidad de la temperatura centenaria.

Principales resultados:

  • La variabilidad centenaria de la temperatura del NH es subestimada por los métodos basados en regresión aplicados.
  • Las variaciones de temperatura simuladas sugieren que las reconstrucciones empíricas pueden pasar por alto importantes fluctuaciones climáticas pasadas.

Conclusiones:

  • Las reconstrucciones empíricas existentes pueden subestimar significativamente la amplitud de las variaciones de temperatura de NH en la escala centenaria pasada.
  • Las variaciones de temperatura de NH pasadas podrían haber sido al menos dos veces más grandes que las indicadas por las reconstrucciones actuales.