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La contribución humana a la ola de calor europea del año 2003
Peter A Stott1, D A Stone, M R Allen
1Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK. peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk
Nature
|December 4, 2004
Resumen
La ola de calor europea de 2003, que causó muchas muertes, se hizo al menos dos veces más probable por el cambio climático inducido por el hombre. Este estudio cuantifica el aumento del riesgo de calor extremo en verano debido a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Climatología y climatología.
- Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
- Salud Pública La salud pública.
Sus antecedentes:
- El verano europeo de 2003 fue excepcionalmente caluroso, lo que condujo a una mortalidad significativa relacionada con el calor en Francia, Alemania e Italia.
- Atribuir eventos meteorológicos específicos de manera determinista al cambio climático es complejo, ya que los eventos extremos pueden ocurrir naturalmente.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Estimar la contribución de las actividades humanas, específicamente el aumento de las concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero, al riesgo de la ola de calor europea de 2003.
- Evaluar el impacto del cambio climático antropogénico en la probabilidad de temperaturas extremas de verano en Europa continental.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó un marco probabilístico para evaluar la influencia de las actividades humanas en los eventos climáticos extremos.
- Definido un umbral de temperatura basado en las temperaturas medias de verano, superado en 2003, pero no en ningún año anterior desde 1851.
Principales resultados:
- Se estima que la influencia humana, principalmente a través del aumento de las concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero, ha duplicado al menos el riesgo de que una ola de calor supere el umbral de temperatura definido.
- El estudio indica una probabilidad muy alta (nivel de confianza >90%) de este mayor riesgo.
Conclusiones:
- El cambio climático antropogénico aumenta significativamente la probabilidad de eventos de calor extremo como la ola de calor europea de 2003.
- Las actividades humanas han alterado de manera demostrable el panorama de riesgos para el clima severo, con implicaciones para la salud pública y las estrategias de adaptación al clima.
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