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Ciencias de la Tierra: los datos de microseismicidad pronostican el área de ruptura.

Danijel Schorlemmer¹, Stefan Wiemer

¹Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland. danijel@sed.ethz.ch

|April 29, 2005

Resumen

El pronóstico preciso de terremotos es posible mediante el análisis de las distribuciones de tamaño de micro-terremotos. Este método puede predecir el área de ruptura de futuros grandes terremotos, mejorando las evaluaciones de riesgos sísmicos.

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Área de la Ciencia:

Sismología Sismología Sismología.
Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos
La geofísica es la geofísica.

Sus antecedentes:

Un terremoto de magnitud 6.0 ocurrió en Parkfield, California, el 28 de septiembre de 2004.
Comprender las áreas de ruptura de terremotos es crucial para la evaluación de los peligros.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para demostrar que las distribuciones de tamaño de micro-terremotos pueden predecir el área de ruptura de un choque principal.
Explorar el potencial de este método para mejorar futuras evaluaciones de riesgos sísmicos.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de las distribuciones de tamaño de los micro-terremotos registrados en las décadas previas al choque principal de Parkfield en 2004.
Correlación de los patrones precursores de micro-terremotos con el área de ruptura del choque principal.

Principales resultados:

La distribución de tamaño de los micro-terremotos precursores predijo con precisión el eventual área de ruptura del terremoto de Parkfield de 2004.
Se estableció una clara relación entre la micro-sismicidad previa al choque principal y la extensión de la ruptura posterior.

Conclusiones:

Las distribuciones de tamaño de micro-terremotos ofrecen una herramienta valiosa para pronosticar las áreas de ruptura de terremotos.
La aplicación de este enfoque predictivo a otras fallas monitoreadas puede mejorar las evaluaciones de riesgos sísmicos a nivel mundial.