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Penetración del calentamiento inducido por el hombre en los océanos del mundo
Tim P Barnett1, David W Pierce, Krishna M Achutarao
1Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 0224, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA. tbarnett@ucsd.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 4, 2005
Resumen
El calentamiento del océano durante 40 años muestra una señal compleja causada por el hombre. Este cambio climático antropogénico es evidente en los datos de temperatura del océano y no puede explicarse por factores naturales.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
Sus antecedentes:
- Los océanos del mundo han absorbido un calor significativo en las últimas cuatro décadas.
- Comprender los impulsores del calentamiento de los océanos es crucial para la evaluación del cambio climático.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar el origen de la señal de calentamiento del océano observada.
- Para determinar si el calentamiento es atribuible a factores antropogénicos o a la variabilidad natural.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de los datos de temperatura oceánica de los últimos 40 años.
- Comparación de los patrones de calentamiento observados con simulaciones de dos modelos climáticos.
- Evaluación contra la variabilidad natural del clima y el forzamiento externo (solar, volcánico).
Principales resultados:
- Se ha identificado en los océanos una señal de calentamiento compleja con una estructura vertical significativa.
- El calentamiento observado no puede explicarse por la variabilidad natural del clima interno o el forzamiento solar / volcánico.
- Dos modelos climáticos forzados antropogénicamente simularon con éxito el patrón de calentamiento observado.
Conclusiones:
- La señal de calentamiento del océano observada es de origen humano (antropogénico).
- Esta conclusión es robusta a pesar de los posibles problemas de muestreo observacional y las incertidumbres del modelo.
- Los cambios aditivos combinados con el forzamiento superficial impulsan los patrones de calentamiento observados, lo que requiere una consideración seria de las predicciones futuras del cambio climático.
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