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Los predecesores del gigantesco terremoto de Chile de 1960 fueron
Marco Cisternas1, Brian F Atwater, Fernando Torrejón
1Facultad de Agronomía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Casilla 4-D, Quillota, Chile. marco.cisternas@ucv.cl
Nature
|September 16, 2005
Resumen
El tiempo transcurrido desde el último terremoto no predice de manera confiable el próximo terremoto.
Área de la Ciencia:
- La geofísica es la geofísica.
- La paleosismología es la paleosismología.
- La tectónica es la tectónica.
Sus antecedentes:
- Se desafía la suposición común de que los intervalos más largos entre los terremotos conducen a deslizamientos posteriores más grandes.
- Este predictor ha demostrado no tener éxito para grandes terremotos en fallas de deslizamiento de huelga y el terremoto de Chile de 1960 (M9.5).
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar los intervalos de repetición de terremotos gigantes en el límite de la placa tectónica de Nazca y América del Sur.
- Para probar la validez del tiempo desde el último evento como predictor de magnitudes de terremotos gigantes.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de registros paleosísmicos, incluidos suelos enterrados y capas de arena, en un estuario.
- Reconstrucción del hundimiento tectónico y los eventos de inundación por tsunami en los últimos dos milenios.
Principales resultados:
- El terremoto de Chile de 1960 siguió a un intervalo de ~ 400 años, no 123 años como se sugirió anteriormente.
- Los datos paleosísmicos indican que los largos intervalos (siglos) entre los terremotos gigantes son típicos de esta falla.
- Los terremotos más pequeños en 1737 y 1837 probablemente no liberaron completamente el estrés tectónico acumulado.
Conclusiones:
- El tiempo transcurrido desde el último terremoto es un indicador poco fiable del tamaño de un terremoto gigante.
- Los terremotos gigantes en este límite de placa tienen intervalos de repetición que abarcan siglos.
- Es posible que los eventos sísmicos más pequeños pasados no reduzcan significativamente el estrés para futuras rupturas grandes.
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