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Deconvolución de los factores que contribuyen al aumento de la intensidad global de los huracanes
C D Hoyos1, P A Agudelo, P J Webster
1School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA. choyos@eas.gatech.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|March 18, 2006
Resumen
La intensidad global de los huracanes ha aumentado desde 1970, con más tormentas de categoría 4 y 5. Esta tendencia está directamente relacionada con el aumento de las temperaturas de la superficie del mar, no con otros factores ambientales.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Climatología y climatología.
- Meteorología Meteorología.
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
Sus antecedentes:
- La intensidad global de los huracanes ha mostrado cambios desde 1970.
- Se sabe que varias variables ambientales influyen en la intensificación de los huracanes.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar los impulsores detrás de los cambios observados en la intensidad global de los huracanes desde 1970.
- Para diferenciar entre las tendencias a largo plazo y la variabilidad natural en la intensificación de los huracanes.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó una metodología basada en la teoría de la información.
- Analizó la distribución conjunta de la intensidad del huracán con las principales variables ambientales.
- Se aisló la tendencia a largo plazo de los modos de variabilidad natural a corto plazo.
Principales resultados:
- Se observó una clara tendencia de aumento del número de huracanes de categoría 4 y 5 entre 1970 y 2004.
- Esta tendencia de intensificación está directamente correlacionada con la tendencia de la temperatura de la superficie del mar.
- Otros factores ambientales tropicales influyen principalmente en las variaciones a corto plazo de la intensidad de los huracanes, no en la tendencia global general.
Conclusiones:
- El aumento de las temperaturas de la superficie del mar es el principal impulsor del aumento observado en la intensidad global de los huracanes.
- Las fluctuaciones a corto plazo en la intensidad de los huracanes están influenciadas por otros factores ambientales, pero no explican la tendencia global a largo plazo.
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