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Simulando el calentamiento del clima ártico y el retroceso del campo de hielo en la última interglaciación
Bette L Otto-Bliesner1, Shawn J Marshall, Jonathan T Overpeck
1Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USA. ottobli@ucar.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|March 25, 2006
Resumen
El calentamiento del Ártico y el derretimiento de los glaciares plantean riesgos futuros. Este estudio utilizó modelos climáticos y de las capas de hielo para mostrar que los campos de hielo de Groenlandia y el Ártico causaron 2,2 a 3,4 metros de aumento del nivel del mar durante la última interglaciación.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Paleoclimatología Paleoclimatología
- Glaciología glaciología.
- Modelado del clima Modelado del clima
Sus antecedentes:
- Se prevé que el calentamiento del Ártico y el derretimiento de los glaciares polares aumenten significativamente, pero su escala exacta sigue siendo incierta.
- Comprender los períodos interglaciales pasados es crucial para predecir los cambios futuros del clima y del nivel del mar.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Evaluar el calentamiento de las altas latitudes del hemisferio norte y su impacto en los campos de hielo del Ártico durante la última interglaciación.
- Cuantificar la contribución de la capa de hielo de Groenlandia y otros campos de hielo del Ártico al aumento del nivel del mar durante este período.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó un modelo climático global para simular las condiciones climáticas pasadas.
- Empleó un modelo de capa de hielo dinámico para evaluar el comportamiento del campo de hielo.
- Datos paleoclimáticos integrados y restricciones del núcleo de hielo para la validación del modelo.
Principales resultados:
- El clima simulado coincidía exactamente con las observaciones paleoclimáticas del calentamiento pasado.
- Se descubrió que la capa de hielo de Groenlandia y los campos de hielo circundantes del Ártico contribuyen significativamente al aumento del nivel del mar.
- La contribución estimada al nivel del mar de estos campos de hielo osciló entre 2,2 y 3,4 metros.
Conclusiones:
- La última interglaciación proporciona un análogo valioso para el futuro cambio climático del Ártico.
- Los campos de hielo del Ártico, particularmente la capa de hielo de Groenlandia, tienen una capacidad sustancial para influir en los niveles mundiales del mar.
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