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Enlaces entre la variabilidad de temperatura anual, Milankovitch y continua.
1Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA. phuybers@whoi.edu
Nature
|May 20, 2006
Resumen
La variabilidad de la temperatura de la superficie de la Tierra sigue una escala predecible de la ley de potencia, vinculada a los ciclos anuales y de Milankovitch. Esto revela que el forzamiento de insolación determinista, no solo procesos aleatorios, controla los patrones climáticos a largo plazo.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre
- Paleoclimatología Paleoclimatología
Sus antecedentes:
- La variabilidad climática ocurre en todas las escalas de tiempo y está interconectada.
- Los registros de temperatura de la superficie de la Tierra muestran un continuo de variabilidad con escalamiento de la ley de potencia.
- Los controles sobre esta variabilidad del continuo son poco conocidos, y a menudo se consideran estocásticos.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar la relación entre la variabilidad de la temperatura de la superficie y los ciclos astronómicos.
- Para determinar si la variabilidad del continuo es determinista o estocástica.
- Comprender los mecanismos subyacentes de la variabilidad climática interanual y a largo plazo.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de los registros de temperatura de la superficie de la Tierra.
- Examen de las relaciones de escala de la ley de poder.
- Correlación con los ciclos anuales y de Milankovitch (23.000 y 41.000 años).
Principales resultados:
- La variabilidad de la temperatura de la superficie exhibe la escala de la ley de potencia vinculada a los ciclos anuales y de Milankovitch.
- El ciclo anual explica el escalamiento de períodos mensuales a decenales.
- Los períodos milenarios y más largos se correlacionan con los ciclos de Milankovitch.
Conclusiones:
- La variabilidad de la temperatura continua es una respuesta determinista al forzamiento de la insolación.
- Este hallazgo proporciona información sobre los mecanismos de la variabilidad climática a través de escalas de tiempo.
- El estudio desafía la visión de la variabilidad del continuo como puramente estocástica.
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