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La absorción débil de carbono en las tierras del norte y la fuerte absorción de carbono en las tierras tropicales
Britton B Stephens1, Kevin R Gurney, Pieter P Tans
1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA. stephens@ucar.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 26, 2007
Resumen
Las mediciones de dióxido de carbono atmosférico (CO2) desafían los modelos, lo que sugiere una absorción de carbono más débil en el norte y sumideros de carbono tropicales potencialmente fuertes. Esto indica un papel menor para la absorción terrestre del norte de las emisiones industriales de CO2 de lo que se creía anteriormente.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Química atmosférica y ciencia del ciclo del carbono.
Sus antecedentes:
- Los modelos atmosféricos tradicionalmente estiman una transferencia significativa de carbono terrestre de las latitudes tropicales a las latitudes del norte.
- Las estimaciones anteriores sugirieron una absorción considerable del norte y una emisión tropical de carbono.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar la exactitud de los modelos atmosféricos comparando sus estimaciones de transferencia de CO2 con las distribuciones verticales de CO2 atmosférico observadas.
- Reevaluar los roles de los ecosistemas tropicales y del norte en el ciclo global del carbono.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de las distribuciones verticales de dióxido de carbono (CO2) en la atmósfera al mediodía.
- Comparación de los gradientes de CO2 observados con las salidas de múltiples modelos atmosféricos.
- Refinamiento de las estimaciones del flujo de carbono para las regiones tropicales y del norte.
Principales resultados:
- Los gradientes verticales de CO2 anuales promedio observados son inconsistentes con los modelos que predicen una gran transferencia de carbono de los trópicos al norte.
- Los modelos que mejor reproducen los gradientes observados estiman una absorción de carbono más débil en el norte (-1,5 Pg C año) y una emisión tropical más débil (+0,1 Pg C año).
- Estas estimaciones revisadas difieren significativamente de las cifras de consenso anteriores (-2,4 Pg C año ((-1) absorción, +1,8 Pg C año ((-1) emisión).
Conclusiones:
- La absorción terrestre del norte de las emisiones industriales de CO2 parece desempeñar un papel menor de lo estimado anteriormente.
- Después de contabilizar las emisiones por el uso de la tierra, los ecosistemas tropicales pueden funcionar como sumideros de carbono significativos.
- La revisión de los modelos de transporte de CO2 atmosférico es crucial para comprender con precisión la dinámica global del carbono.
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