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Los glaciares dominan el aumento eustático del nivel del mar en el siglo XXI
Mark F Meier1, Mark B Dyurgerov, Ursula K Rick
1Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, UCB 450, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA. mark.meier@colorado.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 21, 2007
Resumen
El derretimiento de los glaciares y las capas de hielo es uno de los principales impulsores del aumento del nivel del mar, lo que contribuye significativamente a los cambios mundiales en los océanos. El derretimiento acelerado de los glaciares que terminan con el mar puede conducir a un aumento sustancial del nivel del mar para 2100.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Glaciología glaciología.
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
Sus antecedentes:
- El aumento global del nivel del mar es impulsado principalmente por la pérdida de hielo en el océano, y los glaciares y las capas de hielo contribuyen con aproximadamente el 60% de esta pérdida.
- La contribución de los glaciares más pequeños y las capas de hielo al aumento del nivel del mar se ha acelerado en la última década.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar el derretimiento acelerado de los glaciares que terminan con el mar.
- Evaluar el impacto potencial de este derretimiento acelerado en el futuro aumento del nivel del mar.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de la pérdida de hielo de los glaciares y las capas de hielo.
- Consideración de la inestabilidad dinámica en los glaciares de terminación marina.
- Modelado del clima y el equilibrio de masas.
Principales resultados:
- Se ha observado un adelgazamiento acelerado y el retroceso de los glaciares que terminan con el mar.
- Esta inestabilidad dinámica es un factor clave en el aumento de la pérdida de hielo.
- El aumento proyectado del nivel del mar por este derretimiento acelerado podría alcanzar de 0,1 a 0,25 metros para 2100.
Conclusiones:
- El derretimiento acelerado de los glaciares y casquetes de hielo, particularmente los que terminan con los mares, es un factor crítico en el aumento actual y futuro del nivel del mar.
- Las inestabilidades dinámicas en los glaciares se subestiman en los modelos actuales de clima y equilibrio de masas.
- Se necesita una atención urgente a la dinámica del derretimiento de los glaciares para obtener proyecciones precisas del aumento del nivel del mar.
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