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Cambio climático: las causas del calentamiento del siglo XX
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|August 31, 2007
Resumen
Las temperaturas globales aumentaron de manera desigual en el siglo XX, con períodos de calentamiento distintos. Las actividades humanas, influenciadas por factores solares y volcánicos, son los principales impulsores de este cambio climático observado.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Física de la atmósfera física de la atmósfera.
- Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
Sus antecedentes:
- En el siglo XX, las temperaturas globales de la superficie del aire mostraron un aumento significativo de aproximadamente 0,6 grados centígrados.
- Esta tendencia al calentamiento no fue continua, exhibiendo períodos distintos de calentamiento y enfriamiento.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para analizar los patrones del cambio climático del siglo XX.
- Investigar los principales impulsores de las variaciones de temperatura observadas.
Principales métodos:
- Se realizaron simulaciones climáticas completas del siglo XX.
- Las variaciones de temperatura observadas se compararon con los resultados simulados.
Principales resultados:
- Se identificaron dos períodos de calentamiento distintos: 1910-1945 y después de 1976.
- Entre estas fases de calentamiento se produjo un período de enfriamiento gradual.
- Las variaciones climáticas simuladas coincidían estrechamente con las tendencias de temperatura observadas.
Conclusiones:
- Las actividades antropogénicas son los principales impulsores del cambio climático del siglo XX.
- Las variaciones en el forzamiento solar y volcánico juegan un papel moderador en el cambio climático.
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