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Una teoría para el Niño y la oscilación del sur

M A Cane, S E Zebiak

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|May 31, 1985

Resumen

Un nuevo modelo acoplado atmósfera-océano simula eventos de El Niño y la Oscilación Sur (ENSO). Las interacciones deterministas en el Pacífico tropical impulsan el ciclo ENSO, influenciado por la temperatura de la superficie del mar y la dinámica del viento.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
Ciencias de la atmósfera Ciencias atmosféricas.

Sus antecedentes:

El Niño y la Oscilación Sur (ENSO) es un patrón climático significativo.
La comprensión de la recurrencia irregular de ENSO es crucial para la predicción del clima.

Objetivo del estudio:

Desarrollar y presentar un modelo acoplado atmósfera-océano para El Niño y la Oscilación Sur.
Para reproducir las principales características y la recurrencia irregular de ENSO.

Principales métodos:

Utilizó un enfoque de modelado acoplado atmósfera-océano.
Centrado en las interacciones deterministas dentro de la región tropical del Pacífico.

Principales resultados:

El modelo reproduce con éxito las características clave de ENSO, incluida la recurrencia irregular.
Demostró que la dinámica oceánica altera la temperatura de la superficie del mar, lo que afecta el calentamiento atmosférico.
Mostró cómo los cambios en el calentamiento atmosférico influyen en los vientos de superficie, que a su vez alteran la dinámica del océano.

Conclusiones:

El ciclo interanual de ENSO es sostenido por interacciones deterministas entre la atmósfera y el océano.
Las condiciones medias que varían anualmente influyen significativamente en las características espaciales y temporales de los eventos de El Niño.

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