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Pronóstico de terremotos en el sur de California

C B Raleigh, K Sieh, L R Sykes

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|September 17, 1982

Resumen

California está experimentando terremotos más moderados a grandes desde 1978. Este aumento de la sismicidad, vinculado a los cambios en la acumulación de tensión, aumenta la probabilidad anual de un gran terremoto al 13%.

Área de la Ciencia:

* Geofísica y sismología, centrada en la predicción de terremotos y la evaluación de riesgos sísmicos en California.

Sus antecedentes:

* California ha observado un aumento significativo en los terremotos de moderados a grandes desde 1978-1979 en comparación con los 25 años anteriores.
* Los períodos históricos de mayor sismicidad han precedido a grandes terremotos destructivos (magnitud 7+).

Objetivo del estudio:

* Para analizar el reciente aumento en la sismicidad de California y sus posibles implicaciones para futuras ocurrencias sísmicas.
* Investigar la correlación entre los patrones de sismicidad y la acumulación de tensión de la corteza.
* Para evaluar el potencial de un gran terremoto en la falla de San Andrés.

Principales métodos:

* Análisis de datos históricos de frecuencia de terremotos para California.
* Examen de los patrones de acumulación de tensión sísmica.
* Evaluación del potencial de desplazamiento de fallas en la falla de San Andrés.

Principales resultados:

* Una desviación marcada en los patrones de acumulación de deformación se asocia con el aumento de la sismicidad.
* La probabilidad anual de un terremoto de magnitud 7+ en California es ahora del 13%.
* La falla de San Andrés en el sur de California ha acumulado un desplazamiento potencial significativo desde 1857.

Conclusiones:

* El reciente aumento de la sismicidad y los patrones de tensión alterados sugieren un mayor riesgo sísmico en California.
* Hay un potencial sustancial para un gran terremoto (magnitud > 7.5) en la falla de San Andrés debido a la tensión acumulada.

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