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Simulación de las recientes tendencias de la temperatura global
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 3, 1995
Resumen
Las temperaturas troposféricas globales aumentaron drásticamente desde la década de 1970. Los modelos atmosféricos muestran que esta tendencia al calentamiento es impulsada por el aumento de las temperaturas de los océanos, lo que mejora el ciclo hidrológico tropical.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Física de la atmósfera Física de la atmósfera
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
Sus antecedentes:
- La temperatura troposférica promedio global ha aumentado en el último siglo.
- Se ha observado una aceleración significativa en el calentamiento desde mediados de la década de 1970.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar los impulsores del reciente calentamiento troposférico global.
- Para evaluar el papel de las temperaturas de la superficie del océano en las tendencias climáticas observadas.
Principales métodos:
- Se utilizaron modelos atmosféricos forzados con las temperaturas de la superficie oceánica observadas.
- Analizó el período comprendido entre 1970 y 1992.
Principales resultados:
- Los modelos atmosféricos reproducen de cerca el registro de temperatura observado (1970-1992) cuando forzado con las temperaturas del océano.
- La tendencia de calentamiento simulado se atribuyó a un ciclo hidrológico tropical mejorado impulsado por el aumento de las temperaturas de los océanos tropicales.
Conclusiones:
- El calentamiento troposférico observado está fuertemente relacionado con el aumento de las temperaturas oceánicas y los cambios subsiguientes en el ciclo hidrológico.
- Los resultados del modelo muestran una "similaridad inquietante" con las tendencias observadas y los primeros signos de respuesta climática al aumento del dióxido de carbono atmosférico.
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