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Interpretación de la retroalimentación entre las nubes y el clima producida por 14 modelos de circulación general
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|August 4, 1989
Resumen
Los modelos de circulación general muestran una variación de tres veces en la sensibilidad climática debido a la diferente retroalimentación de las nubes. La mejora de la representación de nubes es crucial para las predicciones precisas del cambio climático.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Modelado de la atmósfera.
Sus antecedentes:
- Los modelos de circulación general (MGC) son herramientas vitales para proyectar el cambio climático.
- Las discrepancias en las proyecciones de GCM dificultan las predicciones climáticas precisas.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Identificar las causas de la variabilidad en las proyecciones GCM del cambio climático inducido por el dióxido de carbono.
- Mejorar la precisión de las predicciones climáticas futuras.
Principales métodos:
- Intercomparación de 14 modelos de circulación general atmosférica.
- Utilizó las perturbaciones de la temperatura de la superficie del mar como un proxy para el cambio climático.
Principales resultados:
- Se observó una variación de tres veces en la sensibilidad climática global a través de los modelos.
- Atribuyó la mayor parte de esta variación a las diferencias en la representación de retroalimentación nube-clima.
Conclusiones:
- La retroalimentación entre las nubes y el clima es un factor principal de incertidumbre en las proyecciones de modelos climáticos.
- Las mejoras en el modelado de los procesos de nubes son esenciales para una predicción climática confiable.
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