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Consumo residencial de gas natural: evidencia de que los esfuerzos de conservación hasta la fecha han fracasado
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 24, 1978
Resumen
Un nuevo modelo de consumo de gas natural muestra que los esfuerzos de conservación no tuvieron impacto en las ventas de calefacción residencial entre 1974-1976. Las ventas unitarias por día de grado de calefacción se mantuvieron constantes a pesar de los cambios significativos en los precios.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Economía de la energía Economía de la energía
- Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
- Matemáticas aplicadas de las matemáticas aplicadas.
Sus antecedentes:
- El consumo de gas natural es un factor clave en los mercados de energía y la política ambiental.
- Comprender el impacto de las fluctuaciones de precios y los esfuerzos de conservación en la demanda es crucial para un pronóstico preciso.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Desarrollar y validar un modelo de consumo de gas natural a corto plazo.
- Evaluar la efectividad de las iniciativas de conservación en la demanda residencial de gas natural.
- Para analizar la relación entre los precios del gas natural y los patrones de consumo.
Principales métodos:
- Desarrollo de un nuevo modelo de consumo de gas natural a corto plazo.
- Pruebas empíricas del modelo utilizando los datos de ventas de la Asociación Americana de Gas.
- Aplicación del modelo para evaluar la efectividad de la conservación y la sensibilidad al precio.
Principales resultados:
- Las ventas de calefacción de gas natural residencial por unidad por grado de calefacción-día se mantuvieron constantes de 1974 a 1976.
- No se observó un impacto significativo de los recientes cambios bruscos de precios en las ventas de calefacción residencial.
- El modelo desarrollado proporciona una herramienta confiable para analizar la dinámica de consumo de gas natural a corto plazo.
Conclusiones:
- Los esfuerzos de conservación durante el período de estudio no alteraron de manera demostrable las tendencias de consumo de gas natural residencial.
- La demanda residencial de gas natural exhibió una inelasticidad de precios en el período analizado.
- El modelo sirve como una herramienta valiosa para el análisis futuro del consumo de energía y la evaluación de políticas.
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