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Regímenes meteorológicos: el desafío en el pronóstico a largo plazo.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|January 23, 1987
Resumen
Los regímenes climáticos de latitudes medias, impulsados por ondas planetarias y perturbaciones sinópticas, explican las anomalías climáticas. Estos regímenes caóticos y generados internamente cambian abruptamente, mostrando la dinámica atmosférica natural.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias de la atmósfera Ciencias atmosféricas.
- Climatología y climatología.
- Meteorología Meteorología.
Sus antecedentes:
- La variación atmosférica de latitudes medias a bajas frecuencias (10-90 días) carece de una explicación completa.
- Los modelos existentes, como el estímulo-respuesta a El Niño, pueden no capturar completamente la dinámica atmosférica interna.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Presentar una hipótesis que explique la variación de baja frecuencia en la atmósfera de latitudes medias.
- Introducir el concepto de "regímenes climáticos" como un mecanismo para las anomalías climáticas de corto alcance.
Principales métodos:
- El estudio propone un marco teórico basado en la interacción entre las ondas a escala planetaria y las perturbaciones climáticas a escala sinóptica.
- Supone que estas interacciones generan configuraciones de flujo atmosférico cuasi estables conocidas como regímenes climáticos.
Principales resultados:
- Los regímenes meteorológicos se identifican como la causa de anomalías climáticas como sequías, olas de calor y precipitaciones extremas al organizar las pistas de las tormentas.
- El inicio y la interrupción de estos regímenes pueden ser provocados por perturbaciones ciclónicas individuales, lo que lleva a cambios de régimen rápidos y aparentemente aleatorios.
Conclusiones:
- El caótico y abrupto comportamiento climático de corto alcance de las latitudes medias es una propiedad intrínseca de la dinámica atmosférica.
- Las transiciones del régimen climático son principalmente internas, no requieren forzamiento externo como los eventos de El Niño.
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