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Recurrencia irregular de grandes terremotos a lo largo de la falla de San Andrés: evidencia de los árboles
Resumen
Los árboles viejos revelan que el terremoto de San Juan Capistrano de 1812 rompió 12 km de la falla de San Andrés. Este hallazgo pone de relieve los intervalos variables de los terremotos, lo que complica los pronósticos sísmicos futuros.
Área de la Ciencia:
- La paleosismología es la paleosismología.
- La geofísica es la geofísica.
- Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos
Sus antecedentes:
- La falla de San Andrés es una de las principales fronteras tectónicas en California.
- Comprender el comportamiento de los terremotos en el pasado es crucial para la evaluación del riesgo sísmico.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar el momento y la extensión de un gran terremoto en 1812 utilizando datos de anillos de árboles.
- Para analizar los intervalos de recurrencia de los grandes terremotos en el segmento de Mojave de la falla de San Andrés.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de patrones anuales de anillos de ancho de árboles de árboles viejos cerca de Wrightwood, California.
- Integración de datos paleosísmicos y registros históricos.
- Correlación de los datos de anillos de árboles con eventos sísmicos conocidos.
Principales resultados:
- Los anillos de los árboles indican un terremoto significativo ocurrido en el otoño / invierno de 1812-1813.
- Este evento se identifica como el terremoto de San Juan Capistrano (8 de diciembre de 1812), con una magnitud estimada de 7.5.
- Al menos 12 km del segmento de Mojave de la falla de San Andrés se rompió durante el evento de 1812.
Conclusiones:
- El terremoto de 1812 rompió una parte significativa de la falla de San Andrés.
- El intervalo entre el 1812 y el gran terremoto de 1857 fue de sólo 44 años, lo que demuestra una alta variabilidad.
- Esta variabilidad subraya la incertidumbre en el pronóstico de terremotos basados en el comportamiento pasado y la necesidad de una comprensión más profunda de la dinámica de las fallas.
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