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Gran contribución del calentamiento de la superficie del mar al reciente aumento de la actividad de los huracanes en
1Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, Department of Space and Climate Physics, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK. mas@mssl.ucl.ac.uk
Nature
|February 1, 2008
Resumen
El aumento de las temperaturas superficiales del mar Atlántico está relacionado con el aumento de la actividad de los huracanes. Un aumento de la temperatura de la superficie del mar de 0,5 °C se correlaciona con un aumento del 40% en la frecuencia e intensidad de los huracanes.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Climatología y climatología.
- Meteorología Meteorología.
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
Sus antecedentes:
- La actividad de huracanes en el Atlántico ha aumentado significativamente desde 1995.
- El papel preciso del aumento de las temperaturas de la superficie del mar (SST) en este aumento no se entiende completamente.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para cuantificar la contribución de las temperaturas superficiales del mar Atlántico a la actividad de los huracanes.
- Evaluar la relación entre las SST y la frecuencia de huracanes en el Atlántico Norte tropical, el Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México.
Principales métodos:
- Desarrolló un modelo estadístico utilizando SST local y campos de viento atmosféricos.
- Se analizaron los datos de huracanes de 1965 a 2005.
- Aisló el impacto de SST al eliminar la influencia de los campos de viento.
Principales resultados:
- El modelo estadístico replicó una porción significativa de la frecuencia de los huracanes y la variación de la actividad.
- Un aumento de 0,5 ° C en la SST de agosto a septiembre se asoció con aproximadamente un 40% más de actividad de huracanes.
- El calentamiento local de la superficie del mar representó aproximadamente el 40% del aumento de la actividad de los huracanes entre 1996 y 2005.
Conclusiones:
- La temperatura de la superficie del mar es un factor clave para el aumento de la actividad de los huracanes en el Atlántico.
- La relación observada proporciona un punto de referencia para evaluar las proyecciones de los modelos climáticos de la actividad futura de los huracanes.
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