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Tendencias mundiales en enfermedades infecciosas emergentes
Kate E Jones1, Nikkita G Patel, Marc A Levy
1Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regents Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
Nature
|February 22, 2008
Resumen
Las enfermedades infecciosas emergentes (EID) están aumentando a nivel mundial, impulsadas por factores ambientales y sociales. La mayoría de las EID se originan en la vida silvestre, particularmente en las regiones de latitudes más bajas, sin embargo, los recursos globales están mal asignados para la vigilancia y el control de enfermedades.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Epidemiología La epidemiología.
- Salud Global La salud global.
- Ecología de las Enfermedades Ecología de las Enfermedades
Sus antecedentes:
- Las enfermedades infecciosas emergentes (EID) representan amenazas significativas para la salud mundial y la economía.
- Los impulsores del surgimiento de EID están vinculados a factores socioeconómicos, ambientales y ecológicos.
- Los estudios anteriores carecían de un análisis comparativo de los patrones e impulsores globales de EID.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para analizar los patrones temporales y espaciales globales de los orígenes de EID.
- Identificar las correlaciones entre el surgimiento de EID y los factores socioeconómicos, ambientales y ecológicos.
- Para identificar las regiones con alto riesgo de aparición de EID en el futuro ("puntos calientes").
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de una base de datos de 335 eventos EID desde 1940 hasta 2004.
- Análisis estadístico para controlar el sesgo en los informes e identificar tendencias temporales.
- Análisis de correlación para vincular los orígenes de EID con varios factores globales.
Principales resultados:
- Los eventos de EID han aumentado significativamente con el tiempo, alcanzando su punto máximo en la década de 1980.
- Las zoonoses, principalmente de la vida silvestre, dominan los eventos de EID y están aumentando.
- Las EID bacterianas y raquitistas son prevalentes, lo que indica un aumento en los microbios resistentes a los medicamentos.
- Los orígenes de EID se correlacionan significativamente con factores socioeconómicos, ambientales y ecológicos.
- Las latitudes más bajas con un bajo esfuerzo de notificación muestran un alto riesgo de EIDs zoonóticas y transmitidas por vectores.
Conclusiones:
- Los recursos globales para la vigilancia y el control de la EID están mal asignados.
- Los esfuerzos actuales se concentran en regiones con menos probabilidades de ser fuentes de futuros EID.
- La identificación de los "puntos calientes" de EID es crucial para una seguridad de salud global efectiva.
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