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Los cambios de estrés del terremoto de Wenchuan de 2008 y el aumento del peligro en la cuenca de Sichuan

Tom Parsons¹, Chen Ji, Eric Kirby

¹US Geological Survey, MS-999, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, California 94025, USA. tparsons@usgs.gov

|July 5, 2008

Resumen

El terremoto de Wenchuan de 2008 causó cambios de estrés significativos en la cuenca de Sichuan. El mapeo de estos aumentos de estrés puede ayudar a predecir futuras réplicas dañinas.

Área de la Ciencia:

La geofísica es la geofísica.
Sismología Sismología Sismología.
La tectónica es la tectónica.

Sus antecedentes:

El terremoto de Wenchuan de 2008 (magnitud 7.9) golpeó el este del Tíbet, causando una destrucción generalizada.
Los grandes terremotos reorganizan las tensiones de la corteza terrestre, lo que puede desencadenar réplicas dañinas.
El terremoto de Wenchuan involucró fallas complejas de deslizamiento y empuje a lo largo de la falla Longmen Shan.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para calcular los cambios de tensión cosismica resultantes del terremoto de Wenchuan.
Para identificar las secciones de falla que pueden experimentar un aumento de la tensión y posibles réplicas.

Principales métodos:

Modelado de fallas activas de deslizamiento y empuje en la cuenca de Sichuan.
Cálculo de los cambios de tensión cosismica basados en modelos de ruptura de terremotos.

Principales resultados:

Se calcularon aumentos significativos de las tensiones en numerosas fallas que rodean la zona de ruptura del terremoto de Wenchuan.
El estudio identificó secciones de falla que experimentan niveles elevados de estrés.

Conclusiones:

Los cambios de estrés cosísmico después del terremoto de Wenchuan fueron sustanciales.
El mapeo rápido de estos cambios de estrés es una herramienta valiosa para pronosticar el riesgo de réplicas.

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