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Cambios en la fase del ciclo anual de la temperatura superficial
A R Stine1, P Huybers, I Y Fung
1Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA. zan@atmos.berkeley.edu
Nature
|January 23, 2009
Resumen
El ciclo anual de temperatura de la Tierra se está desplazando antes y cambiando de amplitud. Estos cambios climáticos son anómalos y no están completamente reproducidos por los modelos climáticos actuales, lo que indica la necesidad de más investigación.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre
- Ciencias de la atmósfera Ciencias atmosféricas.
Sus antecedentes:
- El ciclo anual de la temperatura de la superficie de la Tierra exhibe una magnitud significativa, comparable a los ciclos glacial-interglacial.
- Las tendencias observadas en la fase y la amplitud del ciclo anual de temperatura carecen de explicaciones claras debido a la escasa comprensión de la variabilidad natural.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar las causas y la importancia de los cambios observados en la fase y la amplitud del ciclo anual de temperatura superficial.
- Evaluar la variabilidad natural del ciclo anual de temperatura y compararlo con las tendencias recientes.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de los datos de la temperatura de la superficie desde 1954 hasta 2007.
- Comparación de las tendencias observadas con la variabilidad natural y las simulaciones de modelos climáticos.
- Investigación de la relación entre los desplazamientos del ciclo de temperatura y el modo anular del norte (NAM).
Principales resultados:
- La fase del ciclo anual de temperatura superficial sobre tierras extratropicas se desplazó significativamente más temprano en 1,7 días entre 1954 y 2007.
- Este cambio de fase observado es anómalo en comparación con el rango natural de variaciones.
- También se detectaron cambios significativos en la amplitud del ciclo anual durante el período de estudio.
- Los desplazamientos observados están en parte vinculados al modo anular del norte, pero el desplazamiento de fase excede las predicciones de NAM.
Conclusiones:
- Los cambios observados en la fase y la amplitud del ciclo anual de temperatura son significativos y se desvían de la variabilidad natural.
- Los modelos climáticos actuales no reproducen con precisión estos cambios observados, en particular el cambio de fase estacional.
- Se necesita más investigación para comprender los impulsores y las implicaciones de estos cambios climáticos anómalos.
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