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Deformación variable en el tiempo en la zona sísmica de Nuevo Madrid
1Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47906, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|March 17, 2009
Resumen
Nuevos datos geodésicos sugieren que la zona sísmica de Nuevo Madrid se deforma demasiado lentamente para los terremotos recientes. Esto implica que las tasas de carga tectónica o las propiedades de las fallas cambian a lo largo de milenios, lo que afecta a las evaluaciones de riesgos sísmicos.
Área de la Ciencia:
- La geofísica es la geofísica.
- Sismología Sismología Sismología.
- La geodesia es una técnica de geodesia.
Sus antecedentes:
- La zona sísmica de Nueva Madrid (NMSZ) es un importante peligro de terremotos intraplacas en el centro de los Estados Unidos.
- Comprender la deformación y el potencial sísmico de la NMSZ es crucial para la evaluación del peligro.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Evaluar las tasas actuales de deformación tectónica en la zona sísmica de Nuevo Madrid utilizando mediciones geodésicas.
- Evaluar si la deformación observada puede explicar la ocurrencia de grandes terremotos en los últimos 5000 años.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de nuevos datos geodésicos (por ejemplo, GPS, InSAR) en toda la NMSZ.
- Comparación de las tasas de deformación medidas con las requeridas para grandes terremotos prehistóricos.
Principales resultados:
- Las mediciones geodésicas indican una deformación de corriente muy lenta o insignificante en la NMSZ.
- La lenta deformación observada no puede explicar la frecuencia y la magnitud de los grandes terremotos pasados (los últimos 5000 años).
Conclusiones:
- Las tasas actuales de carga tectónica o las propiedades de las fallas en la NMSZ pueden variar significativamente en escalas de tiempo milenarias.
- Esta variabilidad desafía los modelos tradicionales de riesgo sísmico basados en supuestos de estado estacionario.
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