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Objetivos de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para limitar el calentamiento global a 2 grados C
Malte Meinshausen1, Nicolai Meinshausen, William Hare
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg, 14412 Potsdam, Germany. malte.meinshausen@pik-potsdam.de
Nature
|May 2, 2009
Resumen
Los esfuerzos de mitigación del calentamiento global tienen como objetivo limitar el calentamiento a 2°C. Este estudio cuantifica los presupuestos de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) para el período 2000-2050, proporcionando datos cruciales para la política de cambio climático.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del medio ambiente Ciencias del medio ambiente.
- Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre
Sus antecedentes:
- Más de 100 países apuntan a un límite de calentamiento global de 2 ° C en relación con los niveles preindustriales.
- Las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) asociadas con este límite de calentamiento son inciertas debido al ciclo del carbono y la variabilidad de la respuesta climática.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Proporcionar un análisis probabilístico de los presupuestos de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para el período 2000-2050.
- Cuantificar las vías de emisión que limitan el calentamiento del siglo XXI a menos de 2°C.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó distribuciones publicadas de las propiedades del sistema climático.
- Restricciones observacionales incorporadas para un análisis probabilístico integral.
- Se analizaron las emisiones acumuladas de CO2 y los niveles de emisión de 2050 como indicadores.
Principales resultados:
- Limitar las emisiones acumuladas de CO2 a 1.000 Gt de CO2 para 2050 da una probabilidad del 25% de que el calentamiento exceda los 2°C.
- Un límite de 1.440 Gt de CO2 para el año 2050 corresponde a una probabilidad del 50% de que el calentamiento exceda los 2°C.
- Lograr reducir a la mitad las emisiones globales de gases de efecto invernadero para 2050 (Comunicado del G8) tiene una probabilidad del 12-45% de superar los 2°C.
Conclusiones:
- Las emisiones acumuladas y los niveles de emisión de 2050 son indicadores sólidos para limitar el calentamiento a 2°C.
- Significativas reservas de combustibles fósiles permanecen que podrían ser emitidos mientras se mantiene dentro del límite de 2 ° C.
- Se necesitan reducciones urgentes de emisiones, ya que los niveles de emisiones de 2020 impactan significativamente la probabilidad de exceder 2 ° C.
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