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Updated: Jun 22, 2026

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

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Patrones de desarrollo de auge y caída en toda la frontera de la deforestación amazónica.

Ana S L Rodrigues¹, Robert M Ewers, Luke Parry

¹Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK. ana.rodrigues@cefe.cnrs.fr

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|June 13, 2009

Resumen

La deforestación en la Amazonía brasileña inicialmente mejora el desarrollo humano, pero conduce a un declive, lo que indica un ciclo de auge y caída. Se necesitan políticas sostenibles para desacoplar el desarrollo de la degradación del ecosistema.

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Last Updated: Jun 22, 2026

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Published on: July 3, 2020

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
Estudios de desarrollo Estudios de desarrollo Estudios de desarrollo.
Ecología Ecología Ecología.

Sus antecedentes:

La Amazonía brasileña es fundamental para la biodiversidad global y la regulación del clima.
Se enfrenta a importantes desafíos de desarrollo, a menudo vinculados a la conversión forestal.
Los modelos de desarrollo actuales pueden no ser sostenibles.

Objetivo del estudio:

Investigar la relación entre la deforestación y el desarrollo humano en la Amazonía brasileña.
Identificar patrones de desarrollo humano a lo largo de la frontera de la deforestación.
Evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de la conversión forestal en la calidad de vida.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de 286 municipios en varias etapas de deforestación.
Evaluación de los indicadores de desarrollo humano (estándares de vida, alfabetización, esperanza de vida).
Estudio longitudinal de las tendencias de desarrollo a través de la frontera de la deforestación.

Principales resultados:

Se observó un patrón de "boom-and-bust" en el desarrollo humano.
Las etapas iniciales de deforestación se correlacionaron con mejoras en el nivel de vida, la alfabetización y la esperanza de vida.
Las etapas posteriores de la deforestación mostraron una disminución en estos indicadores, volviendo a niveles bajos.

Conclusiones:

El modelo actual de desarrollo económico a través de la conversión forestal es insostenible.
Los niveles de desarrollo humano son paradójicamente bajos tanto antes como después de la deforestación extensa.
Los nuevos incentivos y políticas financieras son cruciales para fomentar el desarrollo sostenible sin agotamiento de los ecosistemas.