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Señales de alerta temprana para las transiciones críticas
Marten Scheffer1, Jordi Bascompte, William A Brock
1Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. marten.scheffer@wur.nl
Nature
|September 4, 2009
Resumen
Los sistemas dinámicos complejos pueden exhibir señales de alerta temprana antes de alcanzar puntos críticos de inflexión. Estas señales genéricas podrían ayudar a predecir cambios abruptos en varios campos, desde los ecosistemas hasta el clima.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Sistemas dinámicos complejos sistemas dinámicos complejos.
- La investigación científica interdisciplinaria es un tipo de investigación científica en la que se hace una investigación interdisciplinaria.
Sus antecedentes:
- Los sistemas complejos, incluidos los ecosistemas, los mercados financieros y el clima, pueden sufrir cambios abruptos conocidos como puntos de inflexión.
- Predecir estos umbrales críticos es un desafío debido a la complejidad inherente de estos sistemas.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Identificar e investigar señales genéricas de alerta temprana para acercarse a puntos de inflexión en sistemas dinámicos complejos.
- Proporcionar un marco para anticipar transiciones críticas en diversos dominios científicos.
Principales métodos:
- Revisión de los marcos teóricos y la evidencia empírica de varios campos científicos.
- Análisis de patrones e indicadores comunes que preceden a los cambios de régimen en sistemas dinámicos.
Principales resultados:
- La evidencia sugiere la existencia de señales genéricas de alerta temprana aplicables a una amplia gama de sistemas complejos.
- Estas señales pueden proporcionar un aviso anticipado de umbrales críticos inminentes.
Conclusiones:
- Las señales de alerta temprana ofrecen un enfoque prometedor para predecir puntos de inflexión en sistemas dinámicos complejos.
- Investigaciones adicionales pueden refinar estas señales para una mejor previsión en campos como la ciencia del clima y la ecología.
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