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El calentamiento reciente invierte el enfriamiento ártico a largo plazo.

Darrell S Kaufman1, David P Schneider, Nicholas P McKay

  • 1School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA. darrell.kaufman@nau.edu

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|September 5, 2009
PubMed
Resumen
Este resumen es generado por máquina.

Las temperaturas del Ártico se enfriaron durante 2000 años debido a los cambios orbitales, y la tendencia de calentamiento más reciente ha invertido este patrón. Las últimas décadas muestran un calentamiento sin precedentes en la región del Ártico.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Paleoclimatología Paleoclimatología
  • Modelado del clima Modelado del clima
  • Investigación del Ártico Investigación del Ártico

Sus antecedentes:

  • El primer milenio de la Era Común (E.C.) La historia de la temperatura, particularmente en el Ártico, está mal documentada.
  • Las tendencias climáticas a largo plazo y sus impulsores requieren datos extensos y de alta resolución.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Para reconstruir la historia de la temperatura del Ártico en los últimos 2000 años.
  • Para investigar la influencia del forzamiento orbital en las tendencias climáticas del Ártico a largo plazo.
  • Para comparar los datos de proxy con las simulaciones de modelos climáticos.

Principales métodos:

  • Síntesis de registros de temperatura proxy con resolución decadal desde el polo hacia 60 grados N.
  • Utilizó una simulación de clima transitorio de 2000 años con el Modelo de Sistema Climático Comunitario (CCSM).
  • Análisis de la sensibilidad de la temperatura a los cambios en la insolación.

Principales resultados:

  • Se observó una tendencia de enfriamiento persistente desde hace 2000 años hasta la Edad Media y la Pequeña Edad de Hielo.
  • Las reconstrucciones proxy y las simulaciones CCSM mostraron una sensibilidad similar a la temperatura a los cambios de insolación.
  • La tendencia de enfriamiento a largo plazo se atribuyó a la reducción de la insolación de verano debido a las variaciones orbitales.
  • El siglo XX marcó una inversión de la tendencia al enfriamiento, con las décadas más cálidas ocurriendo después de 1950.

Conclusiones:

  • El forzamiento orbital influyó significativamente en las tendencias de temperatura del Ártico en los últimos dos milenios.
  • El siglo XX experimentó un pronunciado calentamiento, en contraste con el anterior enfriamiento a largo plazo.
  • Los modelos climáticos pueden replicar las sensibilidades de temperatura observadas a largo plazo a la insolación.