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Intervalos de recurrencia de terremotos periódicos, caóticos y doblados en la profunda falla de San Andrés
1U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA. dshelly@usgs.gov
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 12, 2010
Resumen
Pequeños terremotos cerca de Parkfield, California, muestran patrones repetidos con intervalos de 3-6 días. Estos patrones de repetición de terremotos, aunque complejos, pueden ofrecer información sobre el momento de eventos sísmicos más grandes.
Área de la Ciencia:
- La geofísica es la geofísica.
- Sismología Sismología Sismología.
- Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos
Sus antecedentes:
- Comprender la recurrencia de los terremotos es crucial para la evaluación del peligro sísmico.
- Los largos intervalos de repetición de los grandes terremotos limitan el estudio de su variabilidad.
- Los pequeños terremotos ofrecen una ventana más accesible a los patrones de recurrencia.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para analizar los patrones de recurrencia de las ráfagas de terremotos de baja frecuencia.
- Para investigar la complejidad temporal y la variabilidad de las secuencias de terremotos.
- Explorar posibles paralelismos entre la recurrencia de pequeños y grandes terremotos.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de una secuencia de datos sísmicos de 8,5 años.
- Cuantificación de los intervalos de recurrencia para más de 900 ráfagas de terremotos de baja frecuencia.
- Identificación de oscilaciones y cambios bruscos en los patrones de recurrencia.
Principales resultados:
- Se observaron intervalos de recurrencia estrechamente agrupados para ráfagas de terremotos de baja frecuencia.
- Oscilaciones identificadas en intervalos de recurrencia, típicamente entre 3 y 6 días.
- Hay casos documentados de cambios bruscos de patrón en las secuencias sísmicas.
Conclusiones:
- Los patrones de recurrencia de los pequeños terremotos exhiben complejidad y variabilidad.
- Estos hallazgos sugieren que complejidades subyacentes similares pueden influir en las secuencias de grandes terremotos.
- El análisis de terremotos de baja frecuencia proporciona un valioso sustituto para comprender el comportamiento más amplio de los terremotos.
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