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Las futuras emisiones de CO2 y el cambio climático de la infraestructura energética existente
Steven J Davis1, Ken Caldeira, H Damon Matthews
1Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. sjdavis@carnegie.stanford.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|September 11, 2010
Resumen
La infraestructura existente de combustibles fósiles nos compromete a futuras emisiones significativas de dióxido de carbono y al calentamiento global. El desarrollo urgente de alternativas es crucial para evitar los peores impactos del cambio climático.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del medio ambiente Ciencias del medio ambiente.
- La geofísica es la geofísica.
Sus antecedentes:
- La desaceleración del cambio climático requiere superar la inercia en los sistemas políticos, tecnológicos y geofísicos.
- El compromiso de calentamiento geofísico de la infraestructura existente es un factor crítico, pero a menudo no cuantificado.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Cuantificar el compromiso con las futuras emisiones de dióxido de carbono y el calentamiento de los dispositivos de combustión de combustibles fósiles existentes.
- Para estimar el calentamiento global potencial y las concentraciones de CO2 atmosférico resultantes de estas emisiones comprometidas.
Principales métodos:
- Cálculo de las emisiones futuras acumuladas de dióxido de carbono (CO2) de la combustión de combustibles fósiles por la infraestructura existente.
- Estimación del calentamiento global promedio y las concentraciones atmosféricas de CO2 asociadas con estas emisiones proyectadas.
Principales resultados:
- La infraestructura existente compromete al mundo a 496 gigatoneladas de CO2 (282701 GtCO2) de la combustión de combustibles fósiles entre 2010 y 2060.
- Este compromiso corresponde a un calentamiento medio de 1,3°C (1.11.4°C) por encima de los niveles preindustriales, con concentraciones de CO2 por debajo de 430 ppm.
Conclusiones:
- Las fuentes más amenazantes de emisiones del cambio climático aún no se han construido.
- Se espera una expansión significativa de la infraestructura emisora de CO2 a menos que se desarrollen e implementen rápidamente fuentes de energía alternativas.
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