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Financiación de la ampliación del programa de VIH/SIDA en países de bajos y medianos ingresos, 2009-31
Robert Hecht1, John Stover, Lori Bollinger
1Results for Development Institute, Washington, DC 20009, USA. rhecht@resultsfor
Lancet (London, England)
|October 12, 2010
Resumen
Las necesidades mundiales de financiación del VIH/SIDA oscilan entre 397 y 722 mil millones de dólares para 2031. Los países divergirán en su capacidad de financiación, y las naciones de bajos ingresos seguirán dependiendo de la ayuda externa para la respuesta al VIH/SIDA.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Salud Global La salud global.
- Economía de la salud pública Economía de la salud pública
- Movilización de recursos y movilización de recursos.
Sus antecedentes:
- La pandemia del virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana / síndrome de inmunodeficiencia adquirida (VIH / SIDA) presenta importantes desafíos mundiales de salud y económicos.
- La movilización y la gestión eficientes de los recursos son fundamentales para los esfuerzos sostenidos de respuesta al VIH/SIDA.
- La planificación financiera a largo plazo es esencial para abordar las necesidades cambiantes de la pandemia del VIH / SIDA.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para modelar las necesidades de financiación a largo plazo para el VIH / SIDA en los países en desarrollo.
- Analizar las contribuciones financieras de los países en desarrollo individuales y de los donantes internacionales.
- Proyectar futuras trayectorias de financiación basadas en diferentes escenarios de políticas.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó el modelo de proyecto aids2031 para pronosticar las necesidades globales y específicas de cada país de financiación del VIH/SIDA.
- Desarrolló múltiples escenarios con costos variables basados en las elecciones políticas de los gobiernos y los donantes.
- Analizó las estrategias de prevención, tratamiento y mitigación para 15 países en desarrollo representativos.
Principales resultados:
- Se estima que las necesidades mundiales de financiación del VIH/SIDA oscilarán entre 397 y 722 mil millones de dólares entre 2009 y 2031.
- Identificó futuros financieros divergentes para los países en desarrollo basados en el nivel de ingresos y la carga del VIH / SIDA.
- Los países de ingresos medios con baja carga de VIH / SIDA pueden autofinanciarse, mientras que los países de bajos ingresos y alta carga necesitarán un apoyo externo sostenido.
Conclusiones:
- Los países en desarrollo se enfrentarán a responsabilidades financieras cada vez más variadas para su respuesta al VIH / SIDA.
- Las inversiones estratégicas en la eficiencia de la prevención y el tratamiento pueden permitir que algunos países de ingresos medios con alta prevalencia del VIH reduzcan la dependencia de la financiación externa.
- El apoyo internacional sostenido sigue siendo crucial para los países de bajos ingresos con una alta carga de VIH / SIDA.
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