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Dinámica de transmisión y control del cólera en Haití: un modelo de epidemia
1Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02114, USA. jandrews6@partners.org
Lancet (London, England)
|March 19, 2011
Resumen
Los modelos matemáticos proyectan casi 779.000 casos de cólera y 11.100 muertes en Haití. Las intervenciones como el agua potable, la vacunación y los antibióticos pueden reducir significativamente estos números, evitando miles de muertes potenciales.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Epidemiología La epidemiología.
- Modelado matemático de modelos.
Sus antecedentes:
- Las proyecciones oficiales de cólera en Haití carecían de integración de la tendencia de la enfermedad.
- La efectividad de la intervención se debatió sin estimaciones comparativas.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Proyectar la futura morbilidad y mortalidad por cólera en Haití.
- Proporcionar estimaciones comparativas para las intervenciones propuestas.
Principales métodos:
- Se desarrollaron modelos matemáticos de la transmisión del cólera y se ajustaron a los datos de incidencia haitianos (octubre de 2010 - enero de 2011).
- Las simulaciones proyectaron trayectorias epidémicas de marzo a noviembre de 2011.
- Se estimó el impacto de los programas de agua limpia, vacunación y antibióticos.
Principales resultados:
- Se proyectan 779.000 casos de cólera y 11.100 muertes (marzo-noviembre de 2011).
- Una reducción semanal del 1% en el consumo de agua contaminada podría evitar 105.000 casos y 1.500 muertes.
- La vacunación del 10% de la población podría evitar 63.000 casos y 900 muertes.
- El uso ampliado de antibióticos podría evitar 9000 casos y 1300 muertes.
Conclusiones:
- La disminución a principios de 2011 en la prevalencia del cólera es probablemente natural, no debido a las intervenciones.
- Los casos proyectados exceden significativamente las estimaciones oficiales.
- Las intervenciones combinadas (agua limpia, vacunación, antibióticos) muestran potencial para evitar miles de muertes.
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