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Las perspectivas para el crecimiento de la población.

¹Department of Demography, University of California at Berkeley, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. rlee@demog.berkeley.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|July 30, 2011

Resumen

Las tendencias de la población mundial y el envejecimiento demográfico influyen significativamente en las políticas económicas y sociales actuales. Comprender cómo se hacen estas proyecciones demográficas es crucial para una planificación efectiva a largo plazo y para mitigar la turbulencia potencial.

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Área de la Ciencia:

Demografía La demografía es la demografía.
Estudios de la población Estudios de la población
Ciencias Sociales Ciencias Sociales.

Sus antecedentes:

Las proyecciones de población tienen un impacto significativo en las políticas económicas, ambientales y gubernamentales.
Los ajustes de políticas basados en proyecciones pueden conducir a inestabilidad política y económica.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para explicar la metodología detrás de las proyecciones de población.
Para evaluar la certeza de las tendencias demográficas previstas.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de los datos de proyección de población de las Naciones Unidas.
Examen de indicadores demográficos como las tasas de crecimiento y la distribución por edades.

Principales resultados:

Se proyecta que la población mundial alcanzará los 9.300 millones en 2050 y los 10.100 millones en 2100.
Se espera que el índice de dependencia de la vejez se duplique para 2050 y se triplique para 2100.

Conclusiones:

Las proyecciones de población son esenciales para la formulación de políticas actuales en varios sectores.
La evaluación de la certeza de estas tendencias demográficas a largo plazo es fundamental para la planificación futura.