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Los conflictos civiles están asociados con el clima climático global
Solomon M Hsiang1, Kyle C Meng, Mark A Cane
1School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027, USA. shsiang@princeton.edu
Nature
|August 26, 2011
Resumen
Los cambios climáticos globales, específicamente los eventos de El Niño-Oscilación Sur (ENSO), aumentan significativamente el riesgo de conflictos civiles en las regiones tropicales. Esta investigación vincula los patrones climáticos con la estabilidad social moderna y la ocurrencia de conflictos.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias Políticas Ciencias Políticas.
- Sociología Sociología Sociología.
Sus antecedentes:
- Investigaciones anteriores sugirieron el papel del clima en el colapso histórico de la sociedad, pero carecían de evidencia directa de los conflictos modernos.
- La Oscilación El Niño-Sur (ENSO) es un patrón climático global dominante que influye en la variabilidad climática interanual.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para probar cuantitativamente la hipótesis de que la Oscilación El Niño-Sur (ENSO) impulsa los patrones de conflicto civil global.
- Extender los argumentos históricos sobre la influencia de ENSO en los conflictos hasta la era moderna.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de los datos de los conflictos civiles mundiales desde 1950 hasta 2004.
- Examen de la Oscilación El Niño-Sur (ENSO) como el modo climático interanual dominante.
Principales resultados:
- La probabilidad de nuevos conflictos civiles en regiones tropicales se duplica durante los años de El Niño en comparación con los años de La Niña.
- Los eventos de El Niño-Oscilación Sur (ENSO) pueden representar el 21% de todos los conflictos civiles desde 1950.
Conclusiones:
- Este estudio proporciona la primera evidencia directa que vincula los cambios climáticos a escala planetaria con el conflicto civil global.
- La estabilidad social en las sociedades modernas está fuertemente relacionada con los patrones climáticos globales, particularmente ENSO.
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