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Licencias de conducir graduadas y accidentes fatales que involucran a conductores de 16 a 19 años
Scott V Masten1, Robert D Foss, Stephen W Marshall
1California Department of Motor Vehicles, Research and Development Branch, 2570 24th St/MS H-126, Sacramento, CA 95818-2606, USA. scott.masten@dmv.ca.gov
JAMA
|September 16, 2011
Resumen
Los programas más fuertes de licencias de conducir graduadas (GDL) redujeron significativamente los accidentes fatales para los conductores de 16 años. Sin embargo, estos programas de GDL se vincularon con un ligero aumento en los accidentes fatales para los conductores de 18 años.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Investigación de seguridad vial.
- Política de salud pública política de salud pública.
- Comportamiento del conductor adolescente.
Sus antecedentes:
- Los sistemas de licencias de conducir graduadas (GDL) en los EE.UU. imponen restricciones a los conductores jóvenes.
- GDL incluye la conducción supervisada, la conducción no supervisada intermedia y las limitaciones en la conducción nocturna y el transporte de pasajeros.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Evaluar la asociación entre los programas de GDL y la participación en accidentes fatales entre conductores de 16 a 19 años.
- Para determinar si las regulaciones GDL más estrictas se correlacionan con la reducción o el aumento de las tasas de accidentes fatales.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de datos agrupados de series temporales transversales de 1986-2007 para los 50 estados de EE.UU. y DC.
- Se examinó la incidencia trimestral de accidentes mortales en los que participaron conductores de entre 16 y 19 años.
- Comparación de las tasas para los programas más fuertes de GDL (restricciones nocturnas y de pasajeros) frente a los programas más débiles o sin GDL.
Principales resultados:
- La incidencia de accidentes fatales aumentó con la edad, alcanzando su punto máximo a los 18 y 19 años de edad.
- Los programas más fuertes de GDL se asociaron con una reducción del 26% en los accidentes fatales para conductores de 16 años (RR, 0.74; IC del 95%, 0.65-0.84).
- Por el contrario, los programas más fuertes de GDL se relacionaron con un aumento del 12% en los accidentes mortales para los conductores de 18 años (RR, 1.12; IC del 95%, 1.01-1.23).
Conclusiones:
- Los programas GDL más estrictos reducen efectivamente las tasas de accidentes fatales para los conductores novatos de 16 años.
- Se observó un aumento inesperado en la incidencia de accidentes mortales en conductores de 18 años bajo una GDL más fuerte.
- Se necesita más investigación para comprender y abordar el mayor riesgo para los conductores de 18 años y refinar las estrategias de GDL.
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