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La evolución del exceso de confianza en sí mismo.

Dominic D P Johnson1, James H Fowler

  • 1Politics and International Relations, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9LD, UK. dominic.johnson@ed.ac.uk

Nature
|September 17, 2011
PubMed
Resumen
Este resumen es generado por máquina.

El exceso de confianza, creer que eres mejor que la realidad, puede maximizar la aptitud individual y conducir a un exceso de confianza en toda la población. Esta estrategia evolutiva es estable cuando los beneficios de los recursos superan los costos de la competencia.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Biología evolutiva Biología evolutiva.
  • La economía del comportamiento es la economía del comportamiento.
  • Psicología Psicología Psicología.

Sus antecedentes:

  • La confianza es crucial para el éxito en muchos dominios.
  • El exceso de confianza, o creencia exagerada en sí mismo, puede ofrecer ventajas como una mayor ambición y persistencia.
  • Sin embargo, el exceso de confianza también conduce a malas decisiones, haciendo que su estabilidad evolutiva sea un rompecabezas.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Investigar la estabilidad evolutiva de la confianza excesiva utilizando un modelo basado en agentes.
  • Determinar las condiciones bajo las cuales el exceso de confianza, en lugar de una autoevaluación precisa, es una estrategia evolutivamente estable.

Principales métodos:

  • Desarrolló un modelo evolutivo simulando poblaciones con diferentes niveles de confianza en sí mismo (confianza y exceso de confianza).
  • Analizó los resultados de la aptitud y la estabilidad de diferentes estrategias de creencias bajo diferentes escenarios de competencia de recursos.

Principales resultados:

  • Se descubrió que el exceso de confianza maximiza la aptitud individual y conduce a poblaciones evolutivamente estables bajo condiciones específicas.
  • Las estrategias precisas e imparciales de autoconfianza solo eran estables bajo condiciones ambientales limitadas.
  • La prevalencia de la confianza excesiva en las poblaciones está relacionada con el equilibrio entre los beneficios de los recursos y los costos de la competencia.

Conclusiones:

  • El exceso de confianza puede ser una estrategia evolucionariamente ventajosa, que promueve el éxito a pesar de sus posibles desventajas.
  • Los hallazgos ayudan a explicar la persistencia de la confianza excesiva en las poblaciones humanas y su papel en diversos fenómenos sociales.
  • Comprender la base evolutiva del exceso de confianza es clave para mitigar sus consecuencias negativas.