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La reproducibilidad de las estimaciones observacionales del cambio de temperatura de la superficie y de la atmósfera
B D Santer1, T M L Wigley, K E Taylor
1Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. santer1@llnl.gov
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|December 7, 2011
Resumen
Los registros de temperatura de la superficie muestran un calentamiento significativo en 60 años, confirmado por múltiples estudios. Los hallazgos iniciales de enfriamiento de la troposfera inferior se retractaron debido a errores en el análisis de datos satelitales.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Física de la atmósfera física de la atmósfera.
Sus antecedentes:
- Existen preocupaciones con respecto a la confiabilidad de los conjuntos de datos de temperatura superficial.
- Estudios anteriores indicaron un pronunciado calentamiento de la superficie en los últimos 60 años.
- Un hallazgo inicial sugirió una tendencia de enfriamiento en la troposfera inferior desde 1979.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Verificar de forma independiente los hallazgos sobre las tendencias de la temperatura superficial y troposférica.
- Para investigar la discrepancia en las mediciones de temperatura de la troposfera inferior.
- Para identificar y corregir errores en el análisis de datos satelitales.
Principales métodos:
- Reproducción independiente del análisis de datos de la temperatura de la superficie.
- Reanálisis de las mediciones de temperatura troposférica basadas en satélites.
- Detección y corrección de errores en el procesamiento de datos climáticos.
Principales resultados:
- El pronunciado calentamiento de la superficie en los últimos 60 años se reprodujo de forma independiente.
- El hallazgo inicial de enfriamiento de la troposfera inferior desde 1979 no pudo ser reproducido.
- Se descubrieron errores en los análisis iniciales de los datos satelitales de temperatura troposférica.
Conclusiones:
- Los datos de temperatura de la superficie indican de manera confiable un calentamiento significativo.
- La aparente tendencia al enfriamiento en la troposfera inferior fue un artefacto de errores de datos.
- El análisis corregido de los datos satelitales es crucial para una evaluación precisa de las tendencias climáticas.
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