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Predicción plurianual de la media mensual de la Circulación Meridional de Revolución del Atlántico en 26.5°N
Daniela Matei1, Johanna Baehr, Johann H Jungclaus
1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany. Daniela.Matei@zmaw.de
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|January 7, 2012
Resumen
Ahora es posible predecir la Circulación Meridional de Revolución del Atlántico (AMOC) con hasta cuatro años de anticipación. Este avance en el pronóstico de la circulación oceánica ofrece nuevos conocimientos sobre la previsibilidad del clima.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- La geofísica es la geofísica.
Sus antecedentes:
- La predicción de los cambios en la Circulación Meridional de Revolución del Atlántico (AMOC, por sus siglas en inglés) ha sido históricamente un reto.
- El AMOC juega un papel crucial en la regulación climática global.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para demostrar la previsibilidad de la fuerza media mensual de AMOC a 26.5°N.
- Identificar los factores clave que contribuyen a la previsibilidad del AMOC.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizando pronósticos de conjunto inicializados entre enero de 2008 y enero de 2011.
- Analizando el transporte geostrófico del océano medio superior en toda la cuenca y las diferencias de densidad zonal del océano superior.
Principales resultados:
- Predictibilidad demostrada para la fuerza promedio mensual de AMOC con hasta 4 años de anticipación.
- Identificó el transporte geostrófico del océano superior como la principal fuente de habilidad predictiva.
- Las previsiones indicaban un AMOC estable a 26.5°N hasta al menos 2014, con un debilitamiento temporal en 2010.
Conclusiones:
- Estableció el AMOC como un portador significativo de la previsibilidad climática.
- Destacó la importancia de la dinámica de la parte superior del océano en el pronóstico de AMOC.
- Abrió nuevas vías para la predicción climática a largo plazo y la evaluación de impacto.
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