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Evolución, seguridad y virus de la influenza altamente patógenos.
Marc Lipsitch1, Joshua B Plotkin, Lone Simonsen
1Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics and Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA. mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 23, 2012
Resumen
Predecir la evolución del virus de la gripe es difícil, lo que plantea altos riesgos para los experimentos con cepas virulentas. Las evaluaciones explícitas de riesgo-beneficio son cruciales para la investigación futura sobre patógenos peligrosos.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Virología Virología.
- Epidemiología La epidemiología.
- Evaluación del riesgo Evaluación del riesgo.
Sus antecedentes:
- La evolución del virus de la gripe es compleja y difícil de predecir a partir de las secuencias genéticas.
- Los estudios de laboratorio de los virus de la gripe pueden no capturar completamente los riesgos del mundo real.
- La incertidumbre en la predicción de la evolución viral plantea riesgos para los experimentos con cepas potencialmente peligrosas.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para resaltar las dificultades inherentes a la predicción de la evolución del virus de la gripe.
- Para enfatizar los riesgos asociados con el trabajo experimental en virus de la gripe virulenta.
- Abogar por un enfoque cauteloso en la investigación que involucra patógenos de alta consecuencia.
Principales métodos:
- Revisión de los conocimientos existentes sobre la evolución y la previsibilidad del virus de la influenza.
- Análisis de las implicaciones de la incertidumbre evolutiva para la investigación de laboratorio.
- Discusión de las consideraciones de riesgo-beneficio para experimentos con patógenos virulentos.
Principales resultados:
- Los datos de la secuencia de nucleótidos proporcionan predicciones imperfectas del fenotipo y la aptitud del virus.
- Predecir el momento y el curso de la evolución viral sigue siendo extremadamente desafiante.
- Las observaciones de laboratorio tienen limitaciones para guiar la interpretación de la vigilancia de campo.
Conclusiones:
- La imprevisibilidad inherente de la evolución de la influenza significa que los riesgos de los experimentos con cepas virulentas transmisibles por mamíferos siguen siendo significativos.
- Los hallazgos de laboratorio pueden no mitigar adecuadamente los riesgos de liberación accidental o deliberada de patógenos peligrosos.
- Los experimentos futuros con patógenos virulentos con potencial pandémico requieren evaluaciones explícitas de riesgo-beneficio.
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