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Aumento observado en la absorción neta de dióxido de carbono por tierra y océanos durante los últimos 50 años
A P Ballantyne1, C B Alden, J B Miller
1Department of Geology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA. apballantyne@gmail.com
Nature
|August 4, 2012
Resumen
La absorción global de carbono por la tierra y los océanos se ha duplicado en los últimos 50 años, contrariamente a las predicciones anteriores de modelos climáticos. Este hallazgo desafía las suposiciones sobre los sumideros de carbono y los ciclos de retroalimentación del cambio climático.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre
- Investigación del ciclo del carbono.
Sus antecedentes:
- Las predicciones climáticas futuras enfrentan incertidumbre debido a la respuesta del ciclo global del carbono al cambio climático.
- Las reservas de carbono oceánicas y terrestres absorben actualmente aproximadamente la mitad de las emisiones antropogénicas de dióxido de carbono (CO2).
- Los modelos proyectan una disminución futura en la absorción de carbono, lo que sugiere una retroalimentación positiva carbono-clima.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para analizar los cambios en las fuentes y sumideros globales de dióxido de carbono (CO2) en los últimos 50 años.
- Evaluar la tendencia de la absorción global de carbono utilizando mediciones de CO2 atmosférico e inventarios de emisiones.
- Desafiar los modelos existentes que predicen una disminución en los sumideros de carbono.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó mediciones de CO2 atmosférico a escala global.
- Inventarios incorporados de emisiones de CO2 y sus incertidumbres.
- Realizó un análisis de balance de masas para calcular los cambios en las fuentes y sumideros globales de CO2.
Principales resultados:
- La absorción global de carbono ha aumentado significativamente en aproximadamente 0.05 mil millones de toneladas de carbono por año.
- La absorción global de carbono se duplicó entre 1960 y 2010, pasando de 2,4 ± 0,8 a 5,0 ± 0,9 mil millones de toneladas por año.
- Es altamente improbable que los sumideros de carbono tanto terrestres como oceánicos hayan disminuido a nivel mundial.
Conclusiones:
- El aumento observado en la absorción global de carbono contradice las predicciones de la disminución de los sumideros de carbono.
- Aproximadamente el 55% de las 350 mil millones de toneladas de carbono emitidas desde 1959 han sido absorbidas por la tierra y los océanos.
- La identificación de los mecanismos que impulsan el aumento de la absorción de carbono es crucial para refinar el presupuesto global de carbono y predecir las futuras interacciones climáticas.
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