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Predicción y prevención de la próxima pandemia de zoonosis
Stephen S Morse1, Jonna A K Mazet, Mark Woolhouse
1Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Lancet (London, England)
|December 4, 2012
Resumen
La mayoría de las pandemias se originan en animales y surgen debido a cambios ecológicos o de comportamiento. Predecir y prevenir futuras pandemias requiere nuevos enfoques de evaluación de riesgos y estrategias de vigilancia global.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Emergencia de enfermedades zoonóticas.
- Epidemiología La epidemiología.
- Una sola salud, una sola salud
Sus antecedentes:
- Las pandemias como el VIH / SIDA y la gripe a menudo se originan en animales y son impulsadas por cambios ecológicos, conductuales o socioeconómicos.
- A pesar de comprender el surgimiento de una pandemia, ninguna pandemia se ha predicho con éxito antes de la infección humana.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Revisar los conocimientos actuales sobre patógenos emergentes, orígenes de huéspedes y factores de emergencia.
- Discutir los desafíos en el control de pandemias y explorar nuevas estrategias de predicción y prevención.
- Para abogar por un cambio de respuesta a la pandemia a la prevención.
Principales métodos:
- Revisión de la literatura sobre patógenos zoonóticos, factores de huésped y factores de emergencia.
- Análisis de los desafíos actuales en la vigilancia y el control de pandemias.
- Exploración de nuevas tecnologías (modelado matemático, diagnóstico, informática) para la detección temprana y la evaluación de riesgos.
Principales resultados:
- Las pandemias son eventos complejos que involucran patógenos, animales huéspedes y factores ambientales / sociales.
- Los métodos actuales de vigilancia y predicción son insuficientes para anticiparse a las pandemias antes del contagio humano.
- Las tecnologías avanzadas ofrecen potencial para identificar nuevos microbios y evaluar los riesgos.
Conclusiones:
- Es necesaria una estrategia proactiva y preventiva de pandemia global.
- La mejora de la vigilancia dirigida a las interfaces críticas animal-humano es crucial.
- El desarrollo de nuevas herramientas de evaluación de riesgos para identificar microbios de alto riesgo es esencial para la prevención futura.
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