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Estimaciones de costos probabilísticos para la mitigación del cambio climático.

Joeri Rogelj1, David L McCollum, Andy Reisinger

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Retrasar la acción climática aumenta significativamente los costos de mitigación. Las decisiones políticas, los factores geofísicos, la demanda de energía y la tecnología influyen en el costo de limitar el calentamiento global a 2°C.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
  • Modelado de Evaluación Integrada para la Evaluación.
  • Economía del medio ambiente La economía del medio ambiente.

Sus antecedentes:

  • El objetivo internacional de limitar el calentamiento global a 2°C enfrenta desafíos debido a las incertidumbres mal cuantificadas y a la limitada integración del conocimiento interdisciplinario.
  • Los estudios existentes a menudo evalúan las incertidumbres tecnológicas y socioeconómicas por separado de las respuestas geofísicas a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Para cerrar la brecha entre la evaluación integrada y las comunidades de modelado climático.
  • Generar distribuciones de costos para limitar los aumentos transitorios de la temperatura global mediante la integración de las incertidumbres geofísicas, tecnológicas, sociales y políticas.

Principales métodos:

  • Desarrolló un modelo que incorpora incertidumbres de cuatro factores clave: geofísico, tecnológico, social y político.
  • Las distribuciones de costos generados para limitar el aumento de la temperatura global a umbrales específicos (por ejemplo, 1,5 ° C, 2 ° C, 3 ° C).

Principales resultados:

  • Las elecciones políticas que retrasan los esfuerzos de mitigación tienen el impacto más sustancial en la distribución de costos y riesgos.
  • Las incertidumbres geofísicas, los factores sociales que afectan la demanda de energía y las incertidumbres tecnológicas siguen en su influencia en los costos de mitigación.

Conclusiones:

  • La formulación de políticas requiere comprender la importancia relativa de los costos de mitigación, la demanda de energía y el calendario de la acción global.
  • La integración de diversas incertidumbres es crucial para evaluar con precisión los costos y riesgos asociados con los objetivos de mitigación del cambio climático.