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La reciente pausa en el calentamiento global está ligada al enfriamiento de la superficie ecuatorial del Pacífico
1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive MC 206, La Jolla, California 92093-0206, USA.
Nature
|September 3, 2013
Resumen
Las temperaturas globales se detuvieron este siglo debido a la variabilidad natural del clima, específicamente al enfriamiento decenal en el Océano Pacífico. Este hallazgo reconcilia los modelos climáticos con las observaciones, lo que muestra que la tendencia al calentamiento a largo plazo continuará.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias de la atmósfera ciencia atmosférica.
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
Sus antecedentes:
- El aumento de las concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero se correlaciona tradicionalmente con el calentamiento global.
- Un hiato observado en el aumento de la temperatura media global en el siglo XXI desafía los modelos climáticos existentes.
- La cuantificación de los mecanismos para este hiato de calentamiento es crucial para las estimaciones precisas de la sensibilidad climática.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para conciliar las simulaciones climáticas con las temperaturas globales observadas durante el hiato reciente.
- Identificar y cuantificar la contribución de la variabilidad climática natural a la pausa del calentamiento.
- Mejorar las estimaciones observacionales de la sensibilidad climática.
Principales métodos:
- Temperaturas de la superficie del mar (SST) observadas prescritas en el centro al este del Pacífico tropical dentro de un modelo climático.
- Forzamiento radiativo incorporado junto con los datos del SST.
- El rendimiento del modelo validado con respecto a las temperaturas globales medias anuales de 1970-2012.
Principales resultados:
- La contabilización del enfriamiento del SST del Pacífico tropical reconcilió las simulaciones del modelo con las temperaturas globales observadas (r = 0,97).
- El modelo reprodujo con precisión las características clave del hiato: intensificación de la circulación de Walker, enfriamiento regional y sequía.
- El hiato fue identificado como un evento decenal de enfriamiento similar a La Niña dentro de la variabilidad climática natural.
Conclusiones:
- El hiato del calentamiento global del siglo XXI está impulsado principalmente por las interacciones naturales de la atmósfera oceánica a escala decenal.
- La variabilidad de la temperatura de la superficie del mar del Pacífico tropical es un factor clave en las fluctuaciones de la temperatura global a corto plazo.
- A pesar de los eventos de hiato, se espera que persista la tendencia al calentamiento a largo plazo debido a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.
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