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Proyecciones de morbilidad y mortalidad por SIDA en San Francisco
G F Lemp1, S F Payne, G W Rutherford
1AIDS Office, Department of Public Health, City and County of San Francisco, Calif 94102.
JAMA
|March 16, 1990
Resumen
Este modelo de estudio adquirió la morbilidad del síndrome de inmunodeficiencia (SIDA) en San Francisco. Las proyecciones indican un número significativo de casos y muertes por el virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana (VIH) para junio de 1993.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Epidemiología La epidemiología.
- Modelado de salud pública.
Sus antecedentes:
- El síndrome de inmunodeficiencia adquirida (SIDA) plantea un desafío significativo para la salud pública.
- Las proyecciones precisas de morbilidad y mortalidad son cruciales para la asignación de recursos y la planificación de la intervención.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Desarrollar un modelo predictivo para la morbilidad y mortalidad por SIDA en San Francisco hasta junio de 1993.
- Estimar el impacto de la infección por el virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana (VIH) en los casos de SIDA y las muertes.
Principales métodos:
- Las tasas de seroconversión del VIH combinadas para los grupos de riesgo clave (hombres homosexuales / bisexuales, usuarios de drogas intravenosas heterosexuales).
- Estimaciones incorporadas de la proporción acumulada de SIDA por la duración de la infección por el VIH y el tamaño de la población en riesgo.
- Aplicó las estimaciones de supervivencia de Kaplan-Meier a los casos proyectados para las proyecciones de mortalidad.
Principales resultados:
- El período de incubación medio para el SIDA entre los hombres homosexuales y bisexuales infectados por el VIH se estimó en 11,0 años.
- Los casos acumulados proyectados de SIDA en San Francisco hasta junio de 1993 oscilan entre 12.349 y 17.022.
- Las proyecciones de muertes acumuladas por SIDA oscilan entre 9.966 y 12.767.
Conclusiones:
- El modelo desarrollado proporciona proyecciones valiosas para la morbilidad y mortalidad por SIDA.
- Los hallazgos destacan el impacto a largo plazo de la infección por el VIH en el desarrollo y la supervivencia del SIDA.
- El estudio subraya la necesidad de estrategias continuas de monitoreo e intervención para el VIH/SIDA.
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