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Resumen

Este resumen es generado por máquina.

Los patrones de citación son predecibles. Un nuevo modelo revela un patrón temporal universal en las citas de artículos científicos, ofreciendo medidas confiables de influencia más allá de las métricas tradicionales.

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Área de la Ciencia:

La bibliometría y la bibliometría.
La cienciometría es Scientometrics.
Ciencias de la información Ciencias de la información.

Sus antecedentes:

Las métricas basadas en citas como los factores de impacto carecen de previsibilidad.
Evaluar la influencia a largo plazo de los trabajos científicos es un desafío.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para investigar la previsibilidad a largo plazo de los patrones de citación.
Desarrollar un modelo mecanicista para la dinámica de las citas.
Para establecer medidas confiables de la influencia científica.

Principales métodos:

Derivación de un modelo mecanicista para la dinámica de las citas.
Análisis de las historias de citas en diversos artículos, revistas y disciplinas.
Colapsar los datos de citación en una curva temporal universal.

Principales resultados:

Todos los artículos científicos exhiben un patrón de citación temporal común y universal.
El modelo derivado colapsa con éxito diversas historias de citas en una sola curva.
Mecanismos subyacentes identificados que rigen el impacto e influencia científicos.

Conclusiones:

La previsibilidad a largo plazo existe en los patrones de citación científica.
El patrón temporal universal ofrece una medida más confiable de la influencia.
Los hallazgos tienen implicaciones potenciales para la política científica y la evaluación.