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  • 1Center for R&D Monitoring (ECOOM) and Department of Managerial Economics, Strategy and Innovation, University of Leuven, Waaistraat 6, Bus 3536, 3000 Leuven, Belgium. Institute for Research Information and Quality Assurance (iFQ), Schuetzenstrasse 6a, 10117 Berlin, Germany. jian.wang@kuleuven.be.

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Resumen
Este resumen es generado por máquina.

La replicación de un modelo de dinámica de citas produjo un pobre poder de predicción. Muchos trabajos mostraron parámetros poco realistas y grandes errores, por debajo del rendimiento de las aproximaciones simples de citación.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • La bibliometría y la bibliometría.
  • La cienciometría es Scientometrics.
  • Ciencia de la red Ciencia de la red Ciencia de la red

Sus antecedentes:

  • Un estudio anterior afirmó que un modelo de dinámica de citas poseía un alto poder predictivo.
  • Comprender los patrones de citación es crucial para evaluar el impacto científico y las tendencias de la investigación.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Para replicar el análisis de Wang et al. con respecto a la dinámica de las citas.
  • Para evaluar la precisión predictiva y la validez de los parámetros del modelo citado.

Principales métodos:

  • Replicación del análisis original realizado por Wang et al.
  • Examen de los parámetros estimados del modelo (μ y λ) y errores de predicción.
  • Comparación con un método de predicción basal utilizando citas a corto plazo.

Principales resultados:

  • La replicación reveló problemas significativos con las predicciones del modelo.
  • El 14,75% de los trabajos se estimaron con parámetros excesivamente grandes (μ > 5, λ > 10).
  • El modelo exhibió errores de predicción sustanciales y tuvo un rendimiento inferior al simple pronóstico basado en citas.

Conclusiones:

  • El pretendido alto poder de predicción del modelo de dinámica de citación no fue soportado en la replicación.
  • Las estimaciones de parámetros del modelo y el rendimiento predictivo son cuestionables.
  • Los simples recuentos de citas a corto plazo pueden ofrecer una aproximación más confiable del comportamiento de citas a largo plazo.