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Intensificación y homogeneización espacial de la subida costera bajo el cambio climático
Daiwei Wang1, Tarik C Gouhier2, Bruce A Menge3
1Sustainability and Data Sciences Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA.
Nature
|February 20, 2015
Resumen
El upwelling costero, vital para la pesca, se intensificará y cambiará el tiempo en latitudes altas debido al cambio climático. Estos cambios en los sistemas de subida del límite oriental (EBUS) tendrán un impacto en la biodiversidad marina.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Oceanografía La oceanografía es la oceanografía.
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ecología marina Ecología marina.
Sus antecedentes:
- El surgimiento costero transporta aguas profundas ricas en nutrientes a la superficie, alimentando la productividad marina y la pesca.
- Comprender los impactos del cambio climático en la subida costera es crucial para predecir la salud futura del ecosistema y la sostenibilidad de las pesquerías.
- Estudios previos mostraron poco consenso sobre cómo el calentamiento afecta la intensidad y el momento de la subida de aguas costeras.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar los cambios proyectados en el tiempo, la intensidad y los patrones espaciales de la subida costera en los sistemas de subida de la frontera oriental (EBUS) bajo el calentamiento climático futuro.
- Evaluar la consistencia de estos cambios en los diferentes EBUS e identificar posibles variaciones regionales.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó un conjunto de modelos climáticos para simular escenarios climáticos futuros.
- Analizó los cambios proyectados en el upwelling costero impulsado por el viento a través de los principales EBUS.
- Comparación de las salidas del modelo para los EBUS de Canarias, Benguela, Humboldt y California.
Principales resultados:
- Se proyecta un inicio más temprano y un final más tardío de la temporada de surgimiento para fines del siglo XXI.
- Aumento anticipado en la intensidad y duración de la ascendencia en latitudes altas, pero no en latitudes bajas.
- Se observaron patrones consistentes en los EBUS de Canarias, Benguela y Humboldt, con notable incertidumbre y falta de intensificación en el EBUS de California.
Conclusiones:
- El calentamiento climático futuro alterará significativamente la dinámica de la subida costera en la mayoría de las EBUS, particularmente en latitudes altas.
- Se espera una reducción de la variación latitudinal en la intensidad y duración de la subida.
- Los cambios proyectados en el upwelling pueden conducir a cambios en la distribución de la biodiversidad marina, con el EBUS de California mostrando respuestas regionales únicas.
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